Thursday, February 25, 2010

Global economic crisis - What exactly is it and how it affected all of us?

Recently my uncle and aunt had been to my place and we were just talking about the things happening in our lives. He asked me "dude, what about marriage? when are you getting married? what are your future plans?". Suddenly i went blank. I told, Hmmm, i am thinking to get marry this year. then he had a smile on his face and said, that's good man. I thought you will marry once you get old enough, hihihi.. Again he said, do you know that now a days parents don't want their daughters to marry a s/w engg? everyone is bothered about their security. and again he gave an example of a family who rejected an offer to marry their daughter to a s/w engg.


Then i said, wow my goodness, That's horrible. There was a time when people wanted a s/w engg as their son in law and even gals wanted a boy who is a s/w engg. I always knew that time changes and good and bad cycles repeat but never expected so fast. Hard time for s/w engg hardly ended in 2004 but never expected it to be more worst than that so soon. Well, that's very bad. Then i asked, so what do you expect me to do now? you don't want me to get married now?

He told, when did i say that? Me: Then what about your story which you just told me?

Uncle: It's all destiny, don't worry. There will be a partner for everybody. You just don't worry.That was like a butter on a hot dosa, which has more holes than normal this time....

Then suddenly he asked, what exactly is a reason for such a situation? what exactly is global recession? when everything will be allright? who is responsible for all of this? Is it because of George W Bush and his wars against terrorism? Then i told him, yes that's also a reason partly and other main reasons are subprime mortgage crisis, mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures in the United States, with major adverse consequences for banks and financial markets around the globe, Mortgage market, Credit risk, Boom and bust in the housing market, High-risk mortgage loans and lending/borrowing practices, Securitization practices, Inaccurate credit ratings,Government policies, Policies of central banks, Financial institution debt levels and incentives, Credit default swaps, Inflow of funds due to trade deficits, Impact in the U.S, Financial market impacts, 2007, Financial market impacts, 2008, Indirect economic effects etc... He was like blind to all this.. Then he said, wow dude i didn't get you.I was bit exhausted after telling all this, even he asked so many questions in between when i was explaining the above points to him. Then it was a challenge for me to make him understand. I told him, just give me 5 mins break and then i will tell you a simple story. Then i scratched my head like anythin and came up with an example which can make him understand very easily. I made sure that he shouldn't ask any questions in between when i tell him the story, which was very simple to understand any person.

Listen to the story:

A person with a monthly income of INR 5000 is happy with his family. This amount is enough for him to lead a comfortable life. Even he was saving INR 1000 and investing in insurance, bank etc. One day a friend of him tells him that, dude why don't you earn some extra money and invest in something that makes you and your family more secure. Then he asks what to do to earn that extra amount. He advices him to buy a cow and start selling milk in the morning and evening. This fellow feels that yeah, this is a good idea and without analysing much he decides to buy a cow and earn that extra amount.He goes to a rich person and asks for a loan and after convincing a lot rich person agrees to lend him money at the rate of 3% interest / month. Even rich person doesn't analyses much like what if he can't pay regularly? Rich person calculates about future like i will get INR 600 interest per month, so i can invest that amount on my sons education. So he sends his son to a good school whose fees is bit higher than what they use to pay before. With the INR 20000 at the rate of 3% interest / month, he takes money and buy a cow from a market. Once he took that cow to his place he looks after it very well and after few days that cow falls sick. He takes it to the doctor and invest some money, and after few days it feel better. But it stops giving milk. Owner thinks that may be it's because of it's health. so he feeds it well and invest money on it's food and some other things. But even after long time, cow doesn't start giving milk.Rich person who lent the money, comes to know that owner of the cow didn't pay his interest nor the capital from last two months. He comes to the owner and asks for the money, and owner tells all the story and tells that he can't repay his money now. Rich person goes mad and feels no other way other than he takes that cow and resell it. He takes that cow and feeds it till he finds a suitable buyer. At last rich person sells that cow to a butcher for INR 3000. And asks the old owner to pay remaining INR 17000 without interest. if he pays that money in installments then he needs to cutdown his monthly expenditure and if he doesn't then rich person loses the capital. This way rich person loses interest plus the interest he would have got from the bank if he would have deposited it in bank, and the extra money he invested in his son's education.Even the person who bought the cow lost some money in looking after the cows daily expenditure and money spent on it's health. This way everyone looses the amount. Every one experienced the recession. On a large scale, this is what a global economic crisis.Then my uncle didn't even ask a single question on this topic. Hope he found the answer appropriate....



Cheers,

Vijay....